The OP’s argument is general: it says essentially that (economic) value is bounded linearly by the number of atoms backing the economy. Regardless of how the atoms are translated to value. This is an impossibility argument. My rebuttal was also general, saying that value is not so bounded.
Any particular way of extracting value, like electronics, usually has much lower bounds in practice than ‘linear in the amount of atoms used’ (even ignoring different atomic elements). So yes, today’s technology that depends on ‘rare’ earths is bounded by the accessible amount of those elements.
But this technology is only a few decades old. The economy has been growing at some % a year for much longer than that, across many industries and technological innovations that have had very different material constraints from each other. And so, while contemporary rare-earth-dependent techniques won’t keep working forever, the overall trend of economic growth could continue far beyond any one technology’s lifespan, and for much longer than the OP projects.
Technology and other secular change doesn’t always increase value; often it is harmful. My argument is that economy can keep growing for a long time, not that it necessarily will, or that all (or even most) changes over time are for the best. And GDP is not a good measure of human wellbeing to begin with; we’re measuring dollars, not happiness, and when I talk about “utility” I mean the kind estimated via revealed preferences.
The OP’s argument is general: it says essentially that (economic) value is bounded linearly by the number of atoms backing the economy. Regardless of how the atoms are translated to value. This is an impossibility argument. My rebuttal was also general, saying that value is not so bounded.
Any particular way of extracting value, like electronics, usually has much lower bounds in practice than ‘linear in the amount of atoms used’ (even ignoring different atomic elements). So yes, today’s technology that depends on ‘rare’ earths is bounded by the accessible amount of those elements.
But this technology is only a few decades old. The economy has been growing at some % a year for much longer than that, across many industries and technological innovations that have had very different material constraints from each other. And so, while contemporary rare-earth-dependent techniques won’t keep working forever, the overall trend of economic growth could continue far beyond any one technology’s lifespan, and for much longer than the OP projects.
Technology and other secular change doesn’t always increase value; often it is harmful. My argument is that economy can keep growing for a long time, not that it necessarily will, or that all (or even most) changes over time are for the best. And GDP is not a good measure of human wellbeing to begin with; we’re measuring dollars, not happiness, and when I talk about “utility” I mean the kind estimated via revealed preferences.