You have to look at individuals in order to get odds for individuals. Your obvious probability of getting a blue marble is for the group of marbles.
But I think we can still look at individual randomly selected marbles.
Before the coin flip let’s write numbers on all the marbles, 1 to 100, without regard to color. And let’s say we roll a fair 100 sided die, and get the number 37.
After the flip and extraction of colored marbles. I look in the bag and find that marble 37 is in it. Given that marble 37 survived, what is the probability that it is blue?
You have to look at individuals in order to get odds for individuals. Your obvious probability of getting a blue marble is for the group of marbles.
But I think we can still look at individual randomly selected marbles.
Before the coin flip let’s write numbers on all the marbles, 1 to 100, without regard to color. And let’s say we roll a fair 100 sided die, and get the number 37.
After the flip and extraction of colored marbles. I look in the bag and find that marble 37 is in it. Given that marble 37 survived, what is the probability that it is blue?