The numbers you use from Holden says that he thinks AGI by 2036 is more than 10%. But when fitting the curves you put that at exactly 10%, which will predictably be an underestimate. It seems better to fit the curves without that number and just check that the result is higher than 10%.
Thanks very much for catching this. We’ve updated the extrapolation to only consider the two datapoints that are precisely specified. With so few points, the extrapolation isn’t all that trustworthy, so we’ve also added some language to (hopefully) make that clear.
The numbers you use from Holden says that he thinks AGI by 2036 is more than 10%. But when fitting the curves you put that at exactly 10%, which will predictably be an underestimate. It seems better to fit the curves without that number and just check that the result is higher than 10%.
Thanks very much for catching this. We’ve updated the extrapolation to only consider the two datapoints that are precisely specified. With so few points, the extrapolation isn’t all that trustworthy, so we’ve also added some language to (hopefully) make that clear.