The 15 seconds transmission (if it’s reasonably common and doesn’t involve one person coughing or sneezing in someone’s face) suggests a quite different infectiouness profile than other variants. You’d expect massive superspreader events from public transport, bars, and events. You’d expect very few people to be infected by family members (because they are exposed to so many people for 15 seconds). I’m not ruling this out but it sounds a bit unlikely based on reports of Delta spread so far.
I’ve seen a bunch of reports that feel intuitively consistent with this. E.g., superspreading around the Euro finals (“the Wembley variant”) and accounts from weddings that I vaguely thought were outdoors, but that could be a false memory. I’d imagine that people would continue to get infected by family members (at least ones that live together) because the secondary attack rate would be really high with such an infectiousness profile. And I’ve also seen some claims from Israel or Australia about near-100% secondary attack rates, but they seemed really anecdotal, so I don’t know. (I expect that it’s already possible to gain a lot confidence about all of this by doing a systematic screening of sources/reports.)
The 15 seconds transmission (if it’s reasonably common and doesn’t involve one person coughing or sneezing in someone’s face) suggests a quite different infectiouness profile than other variants. You’d expect massive superspreader events from public transport, bars, and events. You’d expect very few people to be infected by family members (because they are exposed to so many people for 15 seconds). I’m not ruling this out but it sounds a bit unlikely based on reports of Delta spread so far.
I’ve seen a bunch of reports that feel intuitively consistent with this. E.g., superspreading around the Euro finals (“the Wembley variant”) and accounts from weddings that I vaguely thought were outdoors, but that could be a false memory. I’d imagine that people would continue to get infected by family members (at least ones that live together) because the secondary attack rate would be really high with such an infectiousness profile. And I’ve also seen some claims from Israel or Australia about near-100% secondary attack rates, but they seemed really anecdotal, so I don’t know. (I expect that it’s already possible to gain a lot confidence about all of this by doing a systematic screening of sources/reports.)