Hmm… The calculations work, but somehow it seems against our intuitions. Thinking about it, it seems that the problem is one of scope insensitivity. $100 billion, $700 billion, $7 trillion. They all feel more or less the same, which of course, is absolutely insane. When I look at the numbers, it just feels like “a lot”. Ultimately, what this post is saying is to simply shut up and multiply, which is a very good and and very relevant point.
$100 billion, $700 billion, $7 trillion. They all feel more or less the same, which of course, is absolutely insane. When I look at the numbers, it just feels like “a lot”.
Think of “billion” as being just the name of a unit, like an inch, or a light-year. You have 100, 700, or 7000 units. Do they still feel the same?
Yeah, of course, I understand about the problem of scope insensitivity and how to try to avoid it. My point was that before reading this article, I did not think of it like that, but rather just looked at that number and thought “a lot”. Reading this article made me understand that I was being scope insensitive, and that let me put everything into perspective, in a similar manner to the method you stated. The big problem with biases like this isn’t compensating for them once you identify them, but rather identifying them in the first place.
Hmm… The calculations work, but somehow it seems against our intuitions. Thinking about it, it seems that the problem is one of scope insensitivity. $100 billion, $700 billion, $7 trillion. They all feel more or less the same, which of course, is absolutely insane. When I look at the numbers, it just feels like “a lot”. Ultimately, what this post is saying is to simply shut up and multiply, which is a very good and and very relevant point.
Think of “billion” as being just the name of a unit, like an inch, or a light-year. You have 100, 700, or 7000 units. Do they still feel the same?
Yeah, of course, I understand about the problem of scope insensitivity and how to try to avoid it. My point was that before reading this article, I did not think of it like that, but rather just looked at that number and thought “a lot”. Reading this article made me understand that I was being scope insensitive, and that let me put everything into perspective, in a similar manner to the method you stated. The big problem with biases like this isn’t compensating for them once you identify them, but rather identifying them in the first place.