To make this framework even less helpful (in the instance of markets) - we can’t know what information they contain. (We can perhaps know a little more in the instance of the presidential markets because we can look at the margin and state markets—BUT they were inconsistent with the main market and also don’t tell you what information they were using).
To make this framework even less helpful (in the instance of markets) - we can’t know what information they contain. (We can perhaps know a little more in the instance of the presidential markets because we can look at the margin and state markets—BUT they were inconsistent with the main market and also don’t tell you what information they were using).