Isn’t a Bucket List, literally, the list of things you want to do before dying but were unlikely to do prior to establishing your bucket list? (regardless of whether you became likely to now)
I don’t think of it as having the connotation of things on it being unlikely. For example, you could put “go to Hawaii” on your bucket list and then expect to go for your next vacation. A to-do list isn’t for things you’re unlikely to do, it’s for things you don’t want to forget.
The phrase was “unlikely to do prior to establishing your bucket list,” e.g. you might have always wanted to go to Hawaii but constantly procrastinated on it and/or constantly told yourself you don’t have the money.
Say I want to go to Hawaii, I plan to go to Hawaii over the summer, but if I don’t write it down there’s a 10% chance I’ll forget to get tickets at the right time and it will be too expensive.
I’m 90% likely to go to Hawaii, but I would still think it appropriate to put it on a to do list, and raise the probability to 99%.
My phrasing above was unclear, though. What I meant was, one could put “go to Hawaii” on one’s bucket list even if one already planned to go to Hawaii for one’s next vacation.