Your baseline mortality rate implies an average life expectancy of 120 years. I’d double-check that source.
Also, COVID-19 can cause permanent lung damage, and possibly damage to other organs, even if people are otherwise asymptomatic. The possibility that many people, now young and with sufficient lung capacity to ignore the damage, may become disabled in 20 years or so is what worries me most.
The death rate of per thousand is at least approximately correct, and doesn’t imply people live to 120. You can’t infer time to death by just dividing, because population is not evenly distributed across ages, partly because of birth cohort sizes, partially because people die as they age, so younger people are always over-represented.
Your baseline mortality rate implies an average life expectancy of 120 years. I’d double-check that source.
Also, COVID-19 can cause permanent lung damage, and possibly damage to other organs, even if people are otherwise asymptomatic. The possibility that many people, now young and with sufficient lung capacity to ignore the damage, may become disabled in 20 years or so is what worries me most.
The death rate of per thousand is at least approximately correct, and doesn’t imply people live to 120. You can’t infer time to death by just dividing, because population is not evenly distributed across ages, partly because of birth cohort sizes, partially because people die as they age, so younger people are always over-represented.