I was wondering why p(doom) has apparently been so consistently overestimated. Perhaps another possible reason is attention-seeking. When Martin Rees mentioned a probability of 0.5 on p.8 of “Our Final Century”, people paid attention. Politicians are in on the act as well—check out Al Gore. Doom sells. Perhaps scaring people shitless is simply good marketing.
The difference between then and now is that today, there are actually plausible ways it could happen.
I was wondering why p(doom) has apparently been so consistently overestimated. Perhaps another possible reason is attention-seeking. When Martin Rees mentioned a probability of 0.5 on p.8 of “Our Final Century”, people paid attention. Politicians are in on the act as well—check out Al Gore. Doom sells. Perhaps scaring people shitless is simply good marketing.