I’m not sure this is strong counterevidence, because it can be interpreted as a case of childishness bias overcoming excitement bias:
But there were also countervailing effects in my mind, leading away from the god scenario. The strongest was the outlandishness of it all. I had always been dismissive of ideas that seem like doomsday theories, so I wasn’t automatically comfortable giving the god scenario credence in my mind. I was hesitant to introduce the idea to people who I thought might draw negative conclusions about my judgement.
Indeed I’d go so far as to say if this is the best case we can think of of excitement bias being stronger, that’s pretty good evidence that in fact childishness bias is usually way stronger.
Like, I agree that Michael Wulfson is a person for whom the excitement bias was stronger, judging by his story. But even for him, the childishness bias was super strong too, and eventually won out. Most people are not like him; most people will find the childishness bias / excitement bias ratio much higher than he did.
Counterevidence that the excitement bias afflicts people less than the childishness bias: Michael Wulfsohn’s essay The tyranny of the god scenario.
I’m not sure this is strong counterevidence, because it can be interpreted as a case of childishness bias overcoming excitement bias:
Indeed I’d go so far as to say if this is the best case we can think of of excitement bias being stronger, that’s pretty good evidence that in fact childishness bias is usually way stronger.
Like, I agree that Michael Wulfson is a person for whom the excitement bias was stronger, judging by his story. But even for him, the childishness bias was super strong too, and eventually won out. Most people are not like him; most people will find the childishness bias / excitement bias ratio much higher than he did.