Indeed I’d go so far as to say if this is the best case we can think of of excitement bias being stronger, that’s pretty good evidence that in fact childishness bias is usually way stronger.
Like, I agree that Michael Wulfson is a person for whom the excitement bias was stronger, judging by his story. But even for him, the childishness bias was super strong too, and eventually won out. Most people are not like him; most people will find the childishness bias / excitement bias ratio much higher than he did.
Indeed I’d go so far as to say if this is the best case we can think of of excitement bias being stronger, that’s pretty good evidence that in fact childishness bias is usually way stronger.
Like, I agree that Michael Wulfson is a person for whom the excitement bias was stronger, judging by his story. But even for him, the childishness bias was super strong too, and eventually won out. Most people are not like him; most people will find the childishness bias / excitement bias ratio much higher than he did.