It’s more the latter approximation, but it is nonzero the first thing, which is a skill I think extremely worth building for transfer to other arenas (e.g. “I have no reason to be greater than 1% confident that this strategy to ameliorate AI ex-risk will work, but also it will only work if I try full-force for six months, and I don’t have any better options...”).
Note that rule 1 (protect yourself) supersedes rule 5 (maybe that wasn’t clear) and there will be ways to regain face/the house is committed to not doing the Stupid Thing.
It’s more the latter approximation, but it is nonzero the first thing, which is a skill I think extremely worth building for transfer to other arenas (e.g. “I have no reason to be greater than 1% confident that this strategy to ameliorate AI ex-risk will work, but also it will only work if I try full-force for six months, and I don’t have any better options...”).
Note that rule 1 (protect yourself) supersedes rule 5 (maybe that wasn’t clear) and there will be ways to regain face/the house is committed to not doing the Stupid Thing.