Here’s what it looks like to me, after a bit of reflection: you’re in a state where you think a certain proposition P has a chance of being true, which it is considered a violation of social norms to assert (a situation that comes up more often than we would like).
In this sort of situation, I don’t think it’s necessarily correct to go around loudly asserting, or even mentioning, P. However, I do think it’s probably correct to avoid taking it upon oneself to enforce the (epistemically-deleterious) social norm upon those weird contrarians who, for whatever reason, do go around proclaiming P. At least leave that to the people who are confident that P is false. Otherwise, you are doing epistemic anti-work, by systematically un-correlating normative group beliefs from reality.
My sense was that you were sort of doing that above: you were seeking to reproach someone for being loudly contrarian in a direction that, from your perspective (according to what you say), may well be the right one. This is against your and your friends’ epistemic interests.
(A friendly reminder, finally, that talk of “being a total jerk” and similar is simply talk about social norms and their enforcement.)
I was not aiming to do “that above.” To the extent that I was/came across that way, I disendorse, and appreciate you providing me the chance to clarify. Your models here sound correct to me in general.
Here’s what it looks like to me, after a bit of reflection: you’re in a state where you think a certain proposition P has a chance of being true, which it is considered a violation of social norms to assert (a situation that comes up more often than we would like).
In this sort of situation, I don’t think it’s necessarily correct to go around loudly asserting, or even mentioning, P. However, I do think it’s probably correct to avoid taking it upon oneself to enforce the (epistemically-deleterious) social norm upon those weird contrarians who, for whatever reason, do go around proclaiming P. At least leave that to the people who are confident that P is false. Otherwise, you are doing epistemic anti-work, by systematically un-correlating normative group beliefs from reality.
My sense was that you were sort of doing that above: you were seeking to reproach someone for being loudly contrarian in a direction that, from your perspective (according to what you say), may well be the right one. This is against your and your friends’ epistemic interests.
(A friendly reminder, finally, that talk of “being a total jerk” and similar is simply talk about social norms and their enforcement.)
I was not aiming to do “that above.” To the extent that I was/came across that way, I disendorse, and appreciate you providing me the chance to clarify. Your models here sound correct to me in general.