jacobjacob 20 Nov 2023 23:53 UTC
106 points
0
in reply to: Ben Pace’s comment on: Vote on worthwhile OpenAI topics to discuss
Open-ended: A dialogue between an OpenAI employee who signed the open letter, and someone outside opposed to the open letter, about their reasoning and the options.
(Up/down-vote if you’re interested in reading discussion of this. React paperclip if you have an opinion and would be up for dialoguing)

[Question] ($1000 bounty) How effective are marginal vaccine doses against the covid delta variant?

jacobjacob22 Jul 2021 1:26 UTC

105 points

73 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [Open feedback thread]

jacobjacob5 Dec 2023 20:54 UTC

101 points

272 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Babble challenge: 50 ways of sending something to the moon

jacobjacob1 Oct 2020 4:20 UTC

93 points

114 comments2 min readLW link 1 review

Crisis and opportunity during coronavirus

jacobjacob12 Mar 2020 20:20 UTC

78 points

6 comments5 min readLW link 1 review

jacobjacob 12 Jan 2022 7:04 UTC
65 points
in reply to: Ruby’s comment on: (briefly) Radvac and SMTM, two things we should be doing
I found a low six figure donor who filled 25% of their funding gap. ~~The rest has not been filled.~~ EDIT: They also got an ACX grant, but not enough to fill the whole funding gap I believe. I can intro donors who want to fill it to the radvac team. Email me at jacob at lesswrong.com
Original thread and credit to ChristianKl who picked up on and alerted me to rumours of the funding gap: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBGzge5i4hfbaQZWy/usd1000-bounty-how-effective-are-marginal-vaccine-doses?commentId=XwA8mtvK8YCob2pLK#comments

jacobjacob 8 Feb 2021 2:25 UTC
63 points
on: Making Vaccine
Well, this post was just crying out for some embedded predictions! So here we go:
The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it
The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it
The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots
The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots
For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?
The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots
The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka"
Thanks johnswentworth for help with some of the operationalisations!
I included many different ones, as I think it is often good try to triangulate high stakes questions via different operationalisations. This reduces some some “edge-case noise” stemming from answering vague questions in overly specific ways.
What links here?
- RadVac Commercial Antibody Test Results by johnswentworth (26 Feb 2021 18:04 UTC; 241 points)
- ChristianKl's comment on RadVac Commercial Antibody Test Results by johnswentworth (5 Mar 2021 9:48 UTC; 8 points)

[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration

jacobjacob, ozziegooen, Elizabeth, NunoSempere and bgold

19 Dec 2019 15:49 UTC

62 points

10 comments14 min readLW link 1 review

$1000 bounty for OpenAI to show whether GPT3 was “deliberately” pretending to be stupider than it is

jacobjacob21 Jul 2020 18:42 UTC

56 points

39 comments2 min readLW link

(twitter.com)

[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – Models of impact and challenges

jacobjacob, ozziegooen, Elizabeth, NunoSempere and bgold

19 Dec 2019 15:50 UTC

55 points

29 comments17 min readLW link

jacobjacob 20 Nov 2023 21:48 UTC
55 points
0
in reply to: Ben Pace’s comment on: Vote on worthwhile OpenAI topics to discuss
Open-ended: If >90% of employees leave OpenAI: what plan should Emmett Shear set for OpenAI going forwards?
(Up/down-vote if you’re interested in reading discussion of this. React paperclip if you have an opinion and would be up for discussing)