I’m currently thinking through the tech tree of developments in human coordination that would increase the probability that the development of systems that are superintelligent (in some to all domains), goes well.
Just to start off the brainstorming, here are some:
AI in negotiation opens many interesting avenues, such as:
Allowing parties to reveal confidential or sensitive information to a common, trusted AI, that they normally couldn’t reveal to either a negotiation partner or a mediator
Having an AI search the space of compromises or “third options” way faster and deeper than humans could
Allowing AIs to build a model of your preferences over time, in such a way that two AIs could instantly “pre-negotiate” and suggest a solution, for issues that otherwise wouldn’t be worth investing the effort into
“ML clean rooms” might allow actors to run evaluations on each others models, without having to reveal weights or other sensitive data.
Monitoring technology (such as by massive analysis of comprehensive satellite data) might allow novel agreements that weren’t previously enforceable
Human lie detection tech (note: highly dual-use)
It is an open question which, if any, coordination tech we will be able to build with the level of AI that will be available at different times in the future, and which of it will be available before its too late to be useful.
It’s also an open question whether there’s any specific tech that will be more helpful than just the normal bitter lesson of “GPT-n+1 doing with a good prompt what GPT-n did with all kinds of bells and whistles”.
Nonetheless, whether it be nation state level agreements, inter-lab agreements, or just teams within a lab deciding what to work on: the potential upside from improved human coordination is pretty massive.
So, I’m curious for people’s thoughts:
What are potential ways AI could be used to significantly improve human coordination, between now and the leadup to superintelligence?
(Sidenote 1: I’ll also accept answers for non-AI coordination tech that would still serve as an important enabler here, such as “something something better commitment mechanisms”)
(Sidenote 2: My interest in this is more from the angle of a potential founder, than a researcher: I want to know if there are any potentially extremely promising technologies that I or someone else should try building)
[Question] What does it look like for AI to significantly improve human coordination, before superintelligence?
I’m currently thinking through the tech tree of developments in human coordination that would increase the probability that the development of systems that are superintelligent (in some to all domains), goes well.
Just to start off the brainstorming, here are some:
AI in negotiation opens many interesting avenues, such as:
Allowing parties to reveal confidential or sensitive information to a common, trusted AI, that they normally couldn’t reveal to either a negotiation partner or a mediator
Having an AI search the space of compromises or “third options” way faster and deeper than humans could
Allowing AIs to build a model of your preferences over time, in such a way that two AIs could instantly “pre-negotiate” and suggest a solution, for issues that otherwise wouldn’t be worth investing the effort into
“ML clean rooms” might allow actors to run evaluations on each others models, without having to reveal weights or other sensitive data.
Monitoring technology (such as by massive analysis of comprehensive satellite data) might allow novel agreements that weren’t previously enforceable
Human lie detection tech (note: highly dual-use)
It is an open question which, if any, coordination tech we will be able to build with the level of AI that will be available at different times in the future, and which of it will be available before its too late to be useful.
It’s also an open question whether there’s any specific tech that will be more helpful than just the normal bitter lesson of “GPT-n+1 doing with a good prompt what GPT-n did with all kinds of bells and whistles”.
Nonetheless, whether it be nation state level agreements, inter-lab agreements, or just teams within a lab deciding what to work on: the potential upside from improved human coordination is pretty massive.
So, I’m curious for people’s thoughts:
What are potential ways AI could be used to significantly improve human coordination, between now and the leadup to superintelligence?
(Sidenote 1: I’ll also accept answers for non-AI coordination tech that would still serve as an important enabler here, such as “something something better commitment mechanisms”)
(Sidenote 2: My interest in this is more from the angle of a potential founder, than a researcher: I want to know if there are any potentially extremely promising technologies that I or someone else should try building)